Washington (CNN) -- Florida is now expected to hold its presidential
primary on the last
day in January 2012, a move likely to throw
the carefully arranged Republican nominating
calendar into disarray and jumpstart the
nominating process a month earlier than
party leaders had hoped. Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon told CNN
on Tuesday that a state commission exploring
potential primary dates is likely to choose
January 31 to hold the nominating contest. If that happens, it would
almost certainly
force the traditional early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South
Carolina and Nevada to leapfrog Florida and move
their primaries and caucuses into early- to mid-January. "We are
expecting to meet on Friday from 11 to 12, and I expect that
they will pick January 31 as Florida's primary date," said Cannon, who
helped select members of the nine-member commission. States are
required to submit the dates of their primary and caucuses
to the Republican National Committee no later than Saturday, but
most states are expected to choose their dates by the close of
business Friday. Florida's move would directly violate RNC rules that
forbid any state
other than the first four "carve-out" states -- Iowa, New Hampshire,
Nevada and South Carolina -- from holding a primary before March 6.
States that ignore the RNC rules are subject to losing half of their
delegates -- party representatives who ultimately choose the
nominee -- to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida,
next August. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus and other GOP officials have been
aggressively lobbying Florida Gov. Rick Scott and state legislative
leaders to move the primary back to February 21 in a last-ditch effort
to protect the integrity of the nominating calendar, sources told CNN.
Even under the February 21 scenario, Florida would still lose half of
its
delegates. But the proposal would allow Florida to go fifth on the calendar -- a
coveted position that the state held in 2008 and hopes to hold again
in 2012. A February 21 contest for Florida would also protect the first four
states from having to move their contests to January. But members of
the Florida commission remain wary of states like
Colorado, Georgia and Missouri, which are threatening to hold
primaries or caucuses before February 21. Florida's likely decision is
expected to trigger a flood of calendar
moves as other states look to shore up their relevance in the
presidential nominating process. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South
Carolina are almost certain
to move up in order to defend their cherished early voting status. "If
Florida decides to go in January, they blow the RNC planned
calendar wide open and we'll be back to campaigning over the
holidays as Iowa and New Hampshire hold their presidential caucus
and primary in early January," said Michigan National Committee
member Saul Anuzis, who is on the RNC's presidential nominating
schedule committee. Michigan is holding its primary on February 28,
which is after the first
four states but still in violation of RNC rules. Iowa has vowed to go
before any other state in the process, meaning
that the caucuses could be held in the early days of January, ensuring
that the Republican candidates and their campaigns would likely be
spending part of the holiday season in the hotel rooms of Des Moines.
New Hampshire, whose Secretary of State Bill Gardner holds the
power to set the date of the first-in-the-nation primary, will follow
suit. Nevada and South Carolina are also likely to move in order to stay
ahead of Florida. South Carolina GOP Chairman Chad Connelly said the
Republican Party
respects "the rule of law" and called on other states to respect the
calendar rules that were laid out by RNC officials in 2010. Connelly
said that if Florida moves into January, it would provoke a
stampede to the front of the line as each state tries to maximize its
influence in the process. "If Florida moves, it would create chaos,"
Connelly said "The calendar
would be so compressed that the states that are trying to more
relevant, that I don't think it would do any good for them."